With their statement that there will be no professional football before 30 April at the earliest, but their declaration that the 2019-2020 season will have an unlimited extension, the (English) Football Association (F.A.) seem determined that the F.A. Premier League (F.A.P.L.) fixtures for this whole season will be played. Alternatives might have been to declare the season null and void, or “freeze it” and accept the positions as they stand. There are 3 football things at stake: the Title, who will go into Europe next season, and who will be relegated. Only one seems entirely certain, that Liverpool will be deserved Champions. If they win their next 2 matches, and even if Manchester City win their next 3, the Reds will have a 22 point advantage with 7 matches to play and 21 points available. A done deal.
If however as forecast the Covid-19/Corona virus epidemic worsens and matches can not be played even behind closed doors, is it possible to predict a final points total and therefore position for each F.A.P.L. club on form? Typically a football season has two halves: for the F.A.P.L. the first 19 matches are played as return fixtures for the second half of the season as matches 20 to 38. Knowing a club’s points at match 19, and again at match 29, the last played to date, it is possible to calculate the average points per game gained from matches 19 to 29, and project a final points total at match 38, the last in the season, and position. For example Arsenal (who like Man City have only played 28 matches) have gone up from 24 to 40 points between match 19 and 28, that is gained 16 points in 10 games or an average 1.60 points per game, and would therefore be projected to get 56.0 points by match 38.
How would our other Premier London derbies clubs (PLDs) do on this basis? Chelsea would finish 4th, , their present position, with 61.5 points, having picked up an average of 1.45 points per game. Tottenham Hotspur (1.09 points per game) would complete a poor season in 10thplace with 50.8 points, behind Burnley (51.2, 9th), Wolves (53.6, 8th) and Sheffield United(54.4, 7th) and out of Europe. Crystal Palace would be just out of the top 10 behind Spurs with 49.6 points. West Ham United would avoid relegation in a perilous 17th place with 33.5 points. Watford’s remarkable revival under Nigel Pearson has given 1.27 points per game so far, and would total 38.4 for 15th place….a great escape!
And as for our example The Arsenal their 1.60 points per game average has only been beaten by Champions-elect Liverpool (2.45) and Manchester City (1.73 and projected runners-up). It would take them from 12th half-way through the season to 6th on 56.0 points and a place in Europe! But this is all only theory, and this is football, and who knows how it will all end?
Until the next match, keep well, and best wishes, Andrew at PLDs.